lowered lcd panel prices brands

According to TrendForce, LCD TV panel quotations bore the brunt of continuous downgrades in the purchase volume of TV brands and pricing for most panel sizes have fallen to record lows.

As Chinese panel makers account for nearly 66% of TV panel shipments, BOE, CSOT, and HKC are industry leaders. When there is an imbalance in supply and demand, a focus on strategic direction is prioritized. According to TrendForce, TV panel production capacity of the three aforementioned companies in 3Q22 is expected to decrease by 15.8% compared with their original planning, and 2% compared with 2Q22. Taiwanese manufacturers account for nearly 20% of TV panel shipments so, under pressure from falling prices, allocation of production capacity is subject to dynamic adjustment. On the other hand, Korean factories have gradually shifted their focus to high-end products such as OLED, QDOLED, and QLED, and are backed by their own brands. However, in the face of continuing price drops, they too must maintain operations amenable to flexible production capacity adjustments.

TrendForce indicates, in order to reflect real demand, Chinese panel makers have successively reduced production capacity. However, facing a situation in which terminal demand has not improved, it may be difficult to reverse the decline of panel pricing in June. However, as TV sizes below 55 inches (inclusive) have fallen below their cash cost in May (which is seen as the last line of defense for panel makers) and is even flirting with the cost of materials, coupled with production capacity reduction from panel makers, the price of TV panels has a chance to bottom out at the end of June and be flat in July. However, demand for large sizes above 65 inches (inclusive) originates primarily from Korean brands. Due to weak terminal demand, TV brands revising their shipment targets for this year downward, and purchase volume in 3Q22 being significantly cut down, it is difficult to see a bottom for large-size panel pricing. TrendForce expects that, optimistically, this price decline may begin to dissipate month by month starting in June but supply has yet to reach equilibrium, so the price of large sizes above 65 inches (inclusive) will continue to decline in 3Q22.

TrendForce states, as panel makers plan to reduce production significantly, the price of TV panels below 55 inches (inclusive) is expected to remain flat in 3Q22. However, panel manufacturers cutting production in the traditional peak season also means that a disappointing 2H22 peak season is a foregone conclusion and it will not be easy for panel prices to reverse. However, it cannot be ruled out, as operating pressure grows, the number and scale of manufacturers participating in production reduction will expand further and it timeframe extended, enacting more effective suppression on the supply side, so as to accumulate greater momentum for a rebound in TV panel quotations.

The price of LCD display panels for TVs is still falling in November and is on the verge of falling back to the level at which it initially rose two years ago (in June 2020). Liu Yushi, a senior analyst at CINNO Research, told China State Grid reporters that the wave of “falling tide” may last until June this year. For related panel companies, after the performance surge in the past year, they will face pressure in 2022.

LCD display panel prices for TVs will remain at a high level throughout 2021 due to the high base of 13 consecutive months of increase, although the price of LCD display panels peaked in June last year and began to decline rapidly. Thanks to this, under the tight demand related to panel enterprises last year achieved substantial profit growth.

According to China State Grid, the annual revenue growth of major LCD display panel manufacturers in China (Shentianma A, TCL Technology, Peking Oriental A, Caihong Shares, Longteng Optoelectronics, AU, Inolux Optoelectronics, Hanyu Color Crystal) in 2021 is basically above double digits, and the net profit growth is also very obvious. Some small and medium-sized enterprises directly turn losses into profits. Leading enterprises such as BOE and TCL Technology more than doubled their net profit.

Take BOE as an example. According to the 2021 financial report released by BOE A, BOE achieved annual revenue of 219.31 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 61.79%; Net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies reached 25.831 billion yuan, up 412.96% year on year. “The growth is mainly due to the overall high economic performance of the panel industry throughout the year, and the acquisition of the CLP Panda Nanjing and Chengdu lines,” said Xu Tao, chief electronics analyst at Citic Securities.

In his opinion, as BOE dynamically optimizes its product structure, and its flexible OLED continues to enter the supply chain of major customers, BOE‘s market share as the panel leader is expected to increase further and extend to the Internet of Things, which is optimistic about the company’s development in the medium and long term.

“There are two main reasons for the ideal performance of domestic display panel enterprises.” A color TV industry analyst believes that, on the one hand, under the effect of the epidemic, the demand for color TV and other electronic products surges, and the upstream raw materials are in shortage, which leads to the short supply of the panel industry, the price rises, and the corporate profits increase accordingly. In addition, as Samsung and LG, the two-panel giants, gradually withdrew from the LCD panel field, they put most of their energy and funds into the OLED(organic light-emitting diode) display panel industry, resulting in a serious shortage of LCD display panels, which objectively benefited China’s local LCD display panel manufacturers such as BOE and TCL China Star Optoelectronics.

Liu Yushi analyzed to reporters that relevant TV panel enterprises made outstanding achievements in 2021, and panel price rise is a very important contributing factor. In addition, three enterprises, such as BOE(BOE), CSOT(TCL China Star Optoelectronics) and HKC(Huike), accounted for 55% of the total shipments of LCD TV panels in 2021. It will be further raised to 60% in the first quarter of 2022. In other words, “simultaneous release of production capacity, expand market share, rising volume and price” is also one of the main reasons for the growth of these enterprises. However, entering the low demand in 2022, LCD TV panel prices continue to fall, and there is some uncertainty about whether the relevant panel companies can continue to grow.

According to Media data, in February this year, the monthly revenue of global large LCD panels has been a double decline of 6.80% month-on-month and 6.18% year-on-year, reaching $6.089 billion. Among them, TCL China Star and AU large-size LCD panel revenue maintained year-on-year growth, while BOE, Innolux, and LG large-size LCD panel monthly revenue decreased by 16.83%, 14.10%, and 5.51% respectively.

Throughout Q1, according to WitsView data, the average LCD TV panel price has been close to or below the average cost, and cash cost level, among which 32-inch LCD TV panel prices are 4.03% and 5.06% below cash cost, respectively; The prices of 43 and 65 inch LCD TV panels are only 0.46% and 3.42% higher than the cash cost, respectively.

The market decline trend is continuing, the reporter queried Omdia, WitsView, Sigmaintel(group intelligence consulting), Oviriwo, CINNO Research, and other institutions regarding the latest forecast data, the analysis results show that the price of the TV LCD panels is expected to continue to decline in April. According to CINNO Research, for example, prices for 32 -, 43 – and 55-inch LCD TV panels in April are expected to fall $1- $3 per screen from March to $37, $65, and $100, respectively. Prices of 65 – and 75-inch LCD TV panels will drop by $8 per screen to $152 and $242, respectively.

“In the face of weak overall demand, major end brands requested panel factories to reduce purchase volumes in March due to high inventory pressure, which led to the continued decline in panel prices in April.” Beijing Di Xian Information Consulting Co., LTD. Vice general manager Yi Xianjing so analysis said.

“Since 2021, international logistics capacity continues to be tight, international customers have a long delivery cycle, some orders in the second half of the year were transferred to the first half of the year, pushing up the panel price in the first half of the year but also overdraft the demand in the second half of the year, resulting in the panel price began to decline from June last year,” Liu Yush told reporters, and the situation between Russia and Ukraine has suddenly escalated this year. It also further affected the recovery of demand in Europe, thus prolonging the downward trend in prices. Based on the current situation, Liu predicted that the bottom of TV panel prices will come in June 2022, but the inflection point will be delayed if further factors affect global demand and lead to additional cuts by brands.

With the price of TV panels falling to the cash cost line, in Liu’s opinion, some overseas production capacity with old equipment and poor profitability will gradually cut production. The corresponding profits of mainland panel manufacturers will inevitably be affected. However, due to the advantages in scale and cost, there is no urgent need for mainland panel manufacturers to reduce the dynamic rate. It is estimated that Q2’s dynamic level is only 3%-4% lower than Q1’s. “We don’t have much room to switch production because the prices of IT panels are dropping rapidly.”

Ovirivo analysts also pointed out that the current TV panel factory shipment pressure and inventory pressure may increase. “In the first quarter, the production line activity rate is at a high level, and the panel factory has entered the stage of loss. If the capacity is not adjusted, the panel factory will face the pressure of further decline in panel prices and increased losses.”

In the first quarter of this year, the retail volume of China’s color TV market was 9.03 million units, down 8.8% year on year. Retail sales totaled 28 billion yuan, down 10.1 percent year on year. Under the situation of volume drop, the industry expects this year color TV manufacturers will also set off a new round of LCD display panel prices war.

According to TrendForce"s latest panel price report, TV panel pricing is expected to arrest its fall in October after five consecutive quarters of decline and the prices of certain panel sizes may even be poised to move up. The price decline of IT panels, whether notebook panels or LCD monitor panels, has also begun showing signs of easing and overall pricing of large-size panels is developing towards bottoming out.

TrendForce indicates, with panel makers actively implementing production reduction plans, TV inventories have also experienced a period of adjustment, with pressure gradually being alleviated. At the same time, the arrival of peak sales season at year’s end has also boosted demand marginally. In particular, Chinese brands are still holding out hope for Double Eleven (Singles’ Day) Shopping Festival promotions and have begun to increase their stocking momentum in turn. Under the influence of strictly controlled utilization rate and marginally stronger demand, TV panel pricing, which are approaching the limit of material costs, is expected to halt its decline in October. Prices of panels below 75 inches (inclusive) are expected to cease their declines. The strength of demand for 32-inch products is the most obvious and prices are expected to increase by US$1. As for other sizes, it is currently understood that PO (Purchase Order) quotations given by panel manufacturers in October have are all increased by US$3~5. Currently China"s Golden Week holiday is ongoing but, after the holiday, panel manufacturers and brands are expected to wrestle with pricing. Based on prices stabilizing, whether pricing can actually be increased still depends on the intensity of demand generated by branded manufacturers for different sized products.

TrendForce observes that current demand for monitor panels is weak, and brands are poorly motivated to stock goods. At the same time, the implementation of production cuts by panel manufacturers has played a role and room for price negotiation has gradually narrowed. At present, the decline in panel pricing has slowed. Prices of small-size TN panels below 21.5 inches (inclusive) are expected to cease declining in October due to reduced supply and flat demand. As for mainstream sizes such as 23.8 and 27-inch, price declines are expected to be within US$1.5. The current demand for notebook panels is also weak and customers must still face high inventory issues and are relatively unwilling to buy panels. Panel makers are also trying to slow the decline in panel prices through their implementation of production reduction plans. Declining panel prices are currently expected to continue abating in October. Pricing for 14-inch and 15.6-inch HD TN panels are expected to drop by US$0.2~0.3, falling from a 1.8% drop in September to 0.7%, while pricing for 14-inch and 15.6-inch FHD IPS panels are expected to fall by US$1~1.2, falling from a 3.4% drop in September to 2.4%.

Compared with past instances when TV panels drove a supply/demand reversal through a sharp increase in demand and spiking prices, this current period of lagging TV panel pricing has been halted and reversed through active control of utilization rates by panel manufacturers and a slight increase in demand momentum. The basis for this break in decline and subsequent price increase is relatively weak. Therefore, in order to maintain the strength of this price backstop and eventual escalation and move towards a healthier supply/demand situation, panel manufacturers must continue to strictly and prudently control the utilization rate of TV production lines, in addition to observing whether sales performance from the forthcoming Chinese festivals beat expectations, allowing stocking momentum to continue, and laying a solid foundation for TV panels to completely escape sluggish market conditions.

The price of IT panels has also adhered to the effect of production reduction and the magnitude of its price drops has gradually eased. TrendForce believes, since the capacity for supplying IT panels is still expanding into the future, it is difficult to see declines in mainstream panel prices halt completely when demand remains weak. Even if new production capacity from Chinese panel factories is gradually completed starting from 2023, price competition in the IT panel market will intensify once products are verified by branded clients, so potential downward pressure in pricing still exists.

TrendForce’s latest research finds that TV brands’ promotional activities related to China’s Singles’ Day were helped by the steep decline in display panel prices. With panel prices reaching a very low level, TV brands were able to cut their prices further so as to raise shipments of whole TV sets during the promotional period. On the other hand, the major international brands have come into the second half of this year with a high level of inventory as their sales performances were weaker than expected during the first half. In order to effectively consume the existing inventory, TV brands have significantly corrected down the panel procurement quantity for 2H22. As a result, TrendForce now estimates that global TV shipments in 2H22 will reach 109 million units, reflecting a YoY decline of 2.7%. Global TV shipments during the whole 2022 are currently projected to total 202 million units, showing YoY decline of 3.9%. This annual shipment figure represents a decade low.

This year, the TV market has seen a continuous decline in shipments. Fortunately, there has also been a sharp drop in prices of large-sized panels. Furthermore, freight transportation costs have fallen by more than 50%. Thus, TV brands have been able to vigorously promote large-sized products, and the average size of TVs has also risen by 1.4 inches to 56 inches.

TrendForce further points out that moving into 2023, supply will remain fairly plentiful for TV panels. With the chance of a substantial rally in panel prices being extremely low, brands should feel an easing of cost pressure and have more flexibility when it comes to large-scale promotional activities. However, the IMF has downgraded its global economic growth forecast for 2023 to 2.7%. Moreover, the US, the Eurozone, and China as the world’s three largest regional economies will continue to experience stagnation. Regarding the ongoing inflation, it has recently started to ease a bit in Europe and the US, but the major regional consumer markets on the whole will continue be under its pressure. Because of these factors, TrendForce believes the growth momentum of TV shipments will be severely constrained next year. Global TV shipments are currently forecasted to again register a YoY decline for 2023, falling by 1.4% to 199 million units.

TV sales in China during this year have been noticeably affected by government measures for controlling local COVID-19 outbreaks. During this second half of the year, TV panel prices have fallen to a new record low, and brands have also been aggressively cutting prices so as to meet their annual shipments targets. However, despite all these, TV sales in China for the Singles’ Day period still fell nearly 10% YoY. Turning to the North America, TV sales there shrank by 16.5% YoY for 1H22 as the rapidly mounting inflationary pressure squeezed consumers’ budgets. Around that same time, TV brands also reached their limit in terms of inventory accumulation. To reduce the glut, brands conducted inventory check across all sections of their supply chains and made significant revisions to their procurement plans. Now, in 2H22, brands have been aggressively spurring demand. Full-scale promotional activities commenced on Amazon’s Prime Day, and TV sales were then ramped up to a peak on Black Friday. Among brands, TCL made the largest price concession for this year, cutting the price of its 55-inch Mini LED backlit model by 70% to US$199. Other brands also energetically promoted their particular product models in the holiday sales competition. On account of brands’ efforts, TV sales in North America for the Black Friday period rose by 13% YoY. While China and North America have exhibited very contrasting performances for the busy season, it is also clear that TV brands on the whole have gradually lowered their inventories to a relatively optimal level after months of promotional activities across channels and corrections to panel procurements.

Another notable development that TrendForce has observed in the TV market is the tepid performance of high-end products. Due to the lack of supporting broadcasting content and high retail prices, most TV brands have not been particularly keen on pushing 8K models. And after years of advocacy, Samsung remains the single dominant brand for 8K TVs with a market share almost 70%. Additionally, high inflation has eaten into consumers’ budgets this year. TrendForce therefore projects that 8K TV shipments will register a YoY decline for the first time in 2022, dropping by 7.4% to just about 400,000 units. It is also worth noting that Europe as one of the main sales regions for 8K TVs could be affected by the updated EU energy consumption labelling scheme (i.e., Energy Efficiency Index). Specifically, energy consumption rules have been further tightened so that some older 8K models could be banned from the region starting in March 2023. However, Samsung is planning to launch new 8K models that meet the updated energy consumption standards. Moreover, display panel suppliers continue to promote 8K products so as to widen adoption among TV brands. TrendForce currently forecasts that shipments of 8K TVs will surpass the 500,000 unit mark for 2023, registering a YoY growth of 20%.

TrendForce’s latest research on panel prices finds that LCD panel prices have plummeted. In fact, the price of a 55-inch UHD LCD was 4.8 times lower than the price of a WOLED (white OLED) O/C panel at the end of 3Q22. With the price difference between the two panels returning to where it was at the start of 2020, selling WOLED TVs have been quite challenging for brands that do offer this kind of product. Therefore, TrendForce estimates that shipments of WOLED TVs will shrink by 6.2% YoY to 6.29 million units for 2022. Assuming that LG Display does not want to sacrifice profitability, it will maintain a conservative pricing strategy when quoting WOLED panels next year. Given this situation, TrendForce forecasts that WOLED TV shipments will dip again by 2.7% YoY for 2023.

Prices for all TV panel sizes fluctuated and are forecast to fluctuate between 2020 and 2022. The period from March 2020 to July 2021 saw the biggest price increases, when a 65" UHD panel cost between 171 and 288 U.S. dollars. In the fourth quarter of 2021, such prices fell and are expected to drop to an even lower amount by March 2022.Read moreLCD TV panel prices worldwide from January 2020 to March 2022, by size(in U.S. dollars)Characteristic32" HD43" FHD49"/50" UHD55" UHD65" UHD------

DSCC. (January 10, 2022). LCD TV panel prices worldwide from January 2020 to March 2022, by size (in U.S. dollars) [Graph]. In Statista. Retrieved December 26, 2022, from https://www.statista.com/statistics/1288400/lcd-tv-panel-price-by-size/

DSCC. "LCD TV panel prices worldwide from January 2020 to March 2022, by size (in U.S. dollars)." Chart. January 10, 2022. Statista. Accessed December 26, 2022. https://www.statista.com/statistics/1288400/lcd-tv-panel-price-by-size/

DSCC. (2022). LCD TV panel prices worldwide from January 2020 to March 2022, by size (in U.S. dollars). Statista. Statista Inc.. Accessed: December 26, 2022. https://www.statista.com/statistics/1288400/lcd-tv-panel-price-by-size/

DSCC. "Lcd Tv Panel Prices Worldwide from January 2020 to March 2022, by Size (in U.S. Dollars)." Statista, Statista Inc., 10 Jan 2022, https://www.statista.com/statistics/1288400/lcd-tv-panel-price-by-size/

DSCC, LCD TV panel prices worldwide from January 2020 to March 2022, by size (in U.S. dollars) Statista, https://www.statista.com/statistics/1288400/lcd-tv-panel-price-by-size/ (last visited December 26, 2022)

SEOUL, Jan 26 (Reuters) - South Korea"s LG Display Co Ltd (034220.KS) on Wednesday reported a 30% drop in quarterly operating profit as a one-off cost related to profit-sharing plan and lower TV panel prices offset solid shipments of smaller screens for computers, laptops and smartphones.

During the quarter, prices of 55-inch liquid crystal display (LCD) panels for TV sets fell 37% from the previous quarter, market data from TrendForce"s WitsView showed.

Solid shipments of high-end LCD panels for notebooks and monitors, whose prices declined by less than LCD TV panel prices in 2021, as well as higher-margin OLED panels for smartphones and TVs, should support LG"s results this year, analysts said.

LG Display said its shipments of advanced organic light-emitting diode (OLED) panels jumped more than 70% in 2021 and the display maker reached break-even in its OLED business.

LCD: LCD stands for liquid crystal display, and it’s the most common kind of television besides OLED (defined below). LCD TVs shine an LED backlight through a panel of liquid crystal, a malleable substance that reacts to electricity, opening or closing when jolted. In LCD TVs, the liquid crystal opens to allow the backlight through or closes to block it. The specific details of the opening/closing are dependent upon the arrangement of the pixels: The most common LCD arrangements are Vertical Alignment (VA) and In-Plane Switching (IPS), with the former tending to produce higher contrast and the latter tending to produce wider viewing angles. All so-called “LED” TVs are really LCD TVs, as are all current QLED and ULED TVs.

OLED: An organic light-emitting diode, or OLED, TV creates light inside each individual pixel without using a backlight and can dim each pixel individually all the way down to black, which LCD TVs can’t do. This tech gives an OLED TV an infinite contrast ratio and other benefits to help create an overall better-looking image, although at considerable additional cost. You can read more about OLED technology in this article.

Mini-LEDs: Every LCD TV made today currently uses LEDs to produce the light that shines through the LCD panel. Most TVs use LED lights that pass through a diffuser to light up the entire LCD screen. Mini-LEDs, which some TVs use, are much smaller than traditional LEDs, so TV makers can install more of them and thus create more zones of local dimming, which means less blooming or halos around bright objects. Mini-LEDs are completely different from micro-LEDs, an available (though very expensive) technology that employs individual red, green, and blue LEDs to produce an image without needing an LCD panel at all.

Quantum dots: Quantum dots are a color-enhancing technology primarily found in LCD TVs (though some 2022 OLED TVs now have them as well). Chiefly employed as a filter that’s painted onto a substrate, quantum dots are microscopic nano-crystals that, when struck with blue light, produce very vivid red or green light (depending upon the size of the crystal). Quantum dots are the primary technology that allows LCD TVs to produce the wide color gamut required to display HDR content properly, as they greatly increase the color saturation of red and green.

Judder: This term refers to a slightly jerky motion that can occur when 24p film content appears on a TV with a 60 Hz refresh rate. In such situations, to make 24 frames match up to the 60 Hz display, half of the frames appear two times and the other half appear three times. This display technique causes judder, which is most noticeable on panning shots. Some 120 Hz displays avoid this effect by repeating each film frame five times, while some 60 Hz panels run at 48 Hz to show each frame twice.

Large LCD panel prices have been continuously increasing for last 10 months due to an increase in demand and tight supply. This has helped the LCD industry to recover from drastic panel price reductions, revenue and profit loss in 2019. It has also contributed to the growth of Quantum Dot and MiniLED LCD TV.

Strong LCD TV panel demand is expected to continue in 2021, but component shortages, supply constraints and very high panel price increase can still create uncertainties.

LCD TV panel capacity increased substantially in 2019 due to the expansion in the number of Gen 10.5 fabs. After growth in 2018, LCD TV demand weakened in 2019 caused by slower economic growth, trade war and tariff rate increases. Capacity expansion and higher production combined with weaker demand resulted in considerable oversupply of LCD TV panels in 2019 leading to drastic panel price reductions. Some panel prices went below cash cost, forcing suppliers to cut production and delay expansion plans to reduce losses.

​Panel over-supply also brought down panel prices to way lower level than what was possible through cost improvement. Massive 10.5 Gen capacity that can produce 8-up 65" and 6-up 75" panels from a single mother glass substrate helped to reduce larger size LCD TV panel costs. Also extremely low panel price in 2019 helped TV brands to offer larger size LCD TV (>60-inch size) with better specs and technology (Quantum Dot & MiniLED) at more competitive prices, driving higher shipments and adoption rates in 2019 and 2020.

While WOLED TV had higher shipment share in 2018, Quantum Dot and MiniLED based LCD TV gained higher unit shares both in 2019 and 2020 according to Omdia published data. This trend is expected to continue in 2021 and in the next few years with more proliferation of Quantum Dot and MiniLED TVs.

Panel suppliers’ financial results suffered in 2019 as they lost money. Suppliers from China, Korea and Taiwan all lowered their utilization rates in the second half of 2019 to reduce over-supply. Very low prices combined with lower utilization rates made the revenue and profitability situation for panel suppliers difficult in 2019. BOE and China Star cut the utilization rates of their Gen 10.5 fabs. Sharp delayed the start of production at its 10.5 Gen fab in China. LGD and Samsung display decided to shift away from LCD more towards OLED and QDOLED respectively. Both companies cut utilization rates in their 7, 7.5 and 8.5 Gen fabs. Taiwanese suppliers also cut their 8.5 Gen fab utilization rates.

An increase in demand for larger size TVs in the second half of 2020 combined with component shortages has pushed the market to supply constraint and caused continuous panel price increases from June 2020 to March 2021. Market demand for tablets, notebooks, monitors and TVs increased in 2020 especially in the second half of the year due to the impact of "stay at home" regulations, when work from home, education from home and more focus on home entertainment pushed the demand to higher level.

With stay at home continuing in the firts half of 2021 and expected UEFA Europe football tournaments and the Olympic in Japan (July 23), TV brands are expecting stronger demand in 2021. The panel price increase resulting in higher costs for TV brands. It has also made it difficult for lower priced brands (Tier2/3) to acquire enough panels to offer lower priced TVs. Further, panel suppliers are giving priority to top brands with larger orders during supply constraint. In recent quarters, the top five TV brands including Samsung, LG, and TCL have been gaining higher market share.

From June 2020 to January 2021, the 32" TV panel price has increased more than 100%, whereas 55" TV panel prices have increased more than 75% and the 65" TV panel price has increased more than 38% on average according to DSCC data. Panel prices continued to increase through Q1 and the trend is expected to continue in Q2 2021 due to component shortages.

In last few months top glass suppliers Corning, NEG and AGC have all experienced production problems. A tank failure at Corning, a power outage at NEG and an accident at an AGC glass plant all resulted in glass supply constraints when demand and production has been increasing. In March this year Corning announced its plan to increase glass prices in Q2 2021. Corning has also increased supply by starting glass tank in Korea to supply China’s 10.5 Gen fabs that are ramping up. Most of the growth in capacity is coming from Gen 8.6 and Gen 10.5 fabs in China.

Major increases in panel prices from June 2020, have increased costs and reduced profits for TV brand manufacturers. TV brands are starting to increase TV set prices slowly in certain segments. Notebook brands are also planning to raise prices for new products to reflect increasing costs. Monitor prices are starting to increase in some segments. Despite this, buyers are still unable to fullfill orders due to supply issues.

TV panel prices increased in Q4 2020 and are also expected to increase in the first half of 2021. This can create challenges for brand manufacturers as it reduces their ability to offer more attractive prices in coming months to drive demand. Still, set-price increases up to March have been very mild and only in certain segments. Some brands are still offering price incentives to consumers in spite of the cost increases. For example, in the US market retailers cut prices of big screen LCD and OLED TV to entice basketball fans in March.

Higher LCD price and tight supply helped LCD suppliers to improve their financial performance in the second half of 2020. This caused a number of LCD suppliers especially in China to decide to expand production and increase their investment in 2021.

New opportunities for MiniLED based products that reduce the performance gap with OLED, enabling higher specs and higher prices are also driving higher investment in LCD production. Suppliers from China already have achieved a majority share of TFT-LCD capacity.

BOE has acquired Gen 8.5/8.6 fabs from CEC Panda. ChinaStar has acquired a Gen 8.5 fab in Suzhou from Samsung Display. Recent panel price increases have also resulted in Samsung and LGD delaying their plans to shut down LCD production. These developments can all help to improve supply in the second half of 2021. Fab utilization rates in Taiwan and China stayed high in the second half of 2020 and are expected to stay high in the first half of 2021.

Price increases for TV sets are still not widespread yet and increases do not reflect the full cost increase. However, if set prices continue to increase to even higher levels, there is the potential for an impact on demand.

QLED and MiniLED gained share in the premium TV market in 2019, impacting OLED shares and aided by low panel prices. With the LCD panel price increases in 2020 the cost gap between OLED TV and LCD has gone down in recent quarters.

OLED TV also gained higher market share in the premium TV market especially sets from LG and Sony in the last quarter of 2020, according to industry data. LG Display is implimenting major capacity expansion of its OLED TV panels with its Gen 8.5 fab in China.Strong sales in Q4 2020 and new product sizes such as 48-inch and 88-inch have helped LG Display’s OLED TV fabs to have higher utilization rates.

Samsung is also planning to start production of QDOLED in 2021. Higher production and cost reductions for OLED TV may help OLED to gain shares in the premium TV market if the price gap continues to reduce with LCD.

Lower tier brands are not able to offer aggressive prices due to the supply constraint and panel price increases. If these conditions continue for too long, TV demand could be impacted.

Strong LCD TV demand especially for Quantum Dot and MiniLED TV is expected to continue in 2021. The economic recovery and sports events (UEFA Europe footbal and the Olympics in Japan) are expected to drive demand for TV, but component shortages, supply constraints and too big a price increase could create uncertainties. Panel suppliers have to navigate a delicate balance of capacity management and panel prices to capture the opportunity for higher TV demand. (SD)

Large LCD panel prices have been continuously increasing for last 10 months due to an increase in demand and tight supply. This has helped the LCD industry to recover from drastic panel price reductions, revenue and profit loss in 2019. It has also contributed to the growth of QD and miniLED LCD TV. Strong LCD TV panel demand is expected to continue in 2021, but component shortages, supply constraints, and very high panel price increase can still create uncertainties.

It was earlier anticipated that price increases would decelerate in 2Q, but now the price increase is accelerating compared to 1Q, according to a research by DSCC. Panel prices increased by 27 percent in 4Q20 compared to 3Q and slowed down to 14.5 percent in 1Q21 compared to 4Q, but the current estimate is that average LCD TV panel prices in 2Q21 will increase by another 17 percent. The prices are expected to peak sometime in 3Q21.

There has been a surge in prices across the board from a low in May 2020 to a high point in June 2021 which does not represent the peak. There have been multiple inflection points for this cycle: the first inflection point, the month of the biggest MoM price increases, was passed in September 2020, and the price increase slowed down, then started to accelerate again in January 2021, and there is another slowdown starting in May 2021. Prices in May 2021 have reached levels last seen in July 2017.

Prices increased in 1Q21 for all sizes of TV panels, with double-digit percentage increases in sizes from 32- to 65-inch ranging from 12-18 percent. Prices for 75-inch increased by 8 percent as capacity has continued to increase on Gen 10.5 lines, where 75-inch is an efficient six-cut. Prices for every size of TV panel will continue to increase in 2Q at an even faster rate, ranging from 12 percent for 75-inch to 24 percent for 32-inch. The prices are expected to continue to increase in 3Q.

The current upturn in the crystal cycle has seen the biggest trough-to-peak price increases for LCD TV panels, and the recent acceleration of prices has further extended this record. Comparing the forecast for June 2021 panel prices with the prices in May 2020, there is a trough-to-peak increases from 34 percent for 75-inch to 181 percent for 32-inch, with an average of 111 percent. In comparison, the average trough-to-peak increase of the 2016 to 2017 cycle was 48 percent, and prior cycles saw smaller increases.

Before the current upswing, the largest panels sold with an area premium, but the current cycle has flipped that upside down. Whereas in May 2020, 75-inch panels sold at an area premium of USD 77 per square meter higher than the 32-inch panel price, as of May 2021, they are selling at a USD 65 discount on an area basis. This means that those Gen 10.5 fabs could earn higher revenues from making 32-inch panels than from 75-inch panels. The pattern for 65-inch is even more severe, and 65-inch is now selling at a USD 69 per square meter discount (alternately, a 22% area discount) compared to 32-inch.

The improved pricing for LCD TV panels has already improved the profitability of panel makers. It will continue to drive their profits even higher, especially the two prominent Taiwanese players, who have Gen 7.5 and Gen 8.5 fabs but no Gen 10.5 fabs. Chinese panel makers HKC and CHOT have a similar industrial profile and stand to benefit greatly as well. The leading companies with Gen 10.5 fabs (BOE, CSOT and Foxconn/Sharp) stand to benefit less because the price increases on the largest sizes are more modest, but every LCD panel maker is doing well.

In addition to being an exceptionally large upcycle, the current upswing matches some of the longest stretches of increasing prices ever seen, more than a full year from trough to peak. The length of the upswing can be attributed to several factors: glass and driver IC shortages, the pandemic-driven demand or the potential for Korean fab downsizing.

TV makers continued to make strong profits in 1Q21 despite increasing panel prices. The TV market typically slows down in 1Q and 2Q. TV maker revenues declined seasonally in 1Q but less than usual, and the operating margins for both Samsung and LGE increased sequentially. Samsung’s CE division operating profits exceeded USD 1 billion for the quarter for only the second time ever. With demand remaining strong, TV makers have weathered the increase in panel prices and remained very profitable.

There is a surge in LCD equipment spending to respond to dramatically improved market conditions in the LCD market. DSCC sees LCD revenues rising 32 percent in 2021 to USD 112 billion on strong unit and area growth with prices and profitability rebounding to or even exceeding the 2017 levels. With LCD suppliers able to sell everything they can make at attractive margins; it should be no surprise that most LCD manufacturers are looking to expand capacity.

However, unlike previous upturns when many new fabs were built, in this upturn panel suppliers are looking to stretch their capacity through smaller investments, simplifying their processes and debottlenecking. Having said that, there will be two new Gen 8.6 mega fabs being built. The result versus last quarter is a 10 percent or a USD 2.2 billion increase in 2020-2024 LCD spending from USD 21.8 billion to USD 24 billion. The 2021 LCD equipment spending forecast is up 15 percent versus last quarter’s forecast to USD 10 billion, with 2021 LCD equipment spending up 125 percent versus 2021. In addition, 2022 was upgraded by 28 percent to USD 3.5 billion.

Although there is a healthy upgrade in LCD equipment spending in 2021 and 2022, the outlook for 2022-2024 spending is still significantly lower than in previous years, resulting in tighter capacity and slower price reductions in the next downturn. In addition, with Korean LCD suppliers expected to reduce their LCD capacity and convert to potentially higher margin OLEDs, the outlook for LCD pricing and profitability looks quite healthy, which may result in even more equipment spending, especially as miniLEDs gain acceptance.

In March 2021 Corning announced its plan to increase glass prices in 2Q21. Corning has also increased supply by starting glass tank in Korea to supply China’s Gen 10.5 fabs that are ramping up. Most of the growth in capacity is coming from Gen 8.6 and Gen 10.5 fabs in China.

Widespread component supply shortages could impact availability on LCD TV panels from CSOT and Innolux. The display panel manufacturers have warned that supplies of panels are expected to be tight throughout the year.

According to Li Dongsheng, chairman, TCL, panel shortages will continue in 1H21, following conditions already hampered last year during the start of the COVID-19 pandemic. The situation for 2H21 remains to be seen but for 2021 overall panel supply will be tight.

James Yang, president, Innolux, has warned of a shortage in LCD panels caused by strong demand for LCD coming out of the global crisis and the conditions are expected to continue through 2021. Innolux has seen shortages in LCD components including power semiconductors, driver ICs and glass substrates that have kept production below capacity. Shortages of ICs and semiconductors could continue right up to the 1H22.

Ironically, prior to the run-on LCD panel supplies, manufacturers were faced with the dilemma of overproduction causing a glut in inventory, which was driving prices artificially lower. This was the result of giant new LCD fabs coming online in China and other areas of Asia.

Panel makers, being cognizant of that threat, are expected to produce panels at a more tempered pace to keep margins healthy. LCD panel prices continued to rise in March after moving up in February.

Almost all Chinese panel makers are doing everything they can to incrementally increase their current factories’ capacities through productivity enhancements and new equipment purchases for debottlenecking or capacity expansions. For the same reasons, South Korean panel makers continue to delay shutting down their domestic LCD TV factories.

TV manufacturers have been moving aggressively to replenish inventories of LCD panels to meet strong sales of TVs and other devices to meeting escalating demand, particularly in the United States and Europe.

An increase in demand for larger size TVs in 2H20 combined with component shortages has pushed the market to supply constraint and caused continuous panel price increases from June 2020 to March 2021. The panel price increase resulting in higher costs for TV brands. It has also made it difficult for lower priced brands to acquire enough panels to offer lower priced TVs. Further, panel suppliers are giving priority to top brands with larger orders during supply constraint.

For 3 years, from 2017 to 2020, LCD panel makers suffered through a continuous pattern of price declines interrupted only with brief respites. With the COVID-19 demand surge assisted by shortages in glass and DDICs, panel prices are spiking. Korean, Taiwanese, and Chinese panel makers are reporting robust margins in 1Q 2021 and the good news is anticipated for panel makers to get even better in 2Q.

Although multiple caveats remain about how both supply and demand will trend over the coming months, the modeled glut level is a leading indicator that the next cycle is now on its way, which implies falling prices, utilization, and profitability. Industry players should consider the implications when planning business strategies for the next 2 years.